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Andrea Mitchell Reports

News/Business. Interviews with political figures with host Andrea Mitchell. New.

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Us 13, Barack Obama 10, Pennsylvania 10, Romney 8, Bill Clinton 8, Cleveland 6, Michael Beschloss 5, Clinton 5, Mitt Romney 5, Obama 4, United States 4, Sandy 4, Andrea Mitchell 4, Nevada 4, Msnbc 4, Missouri 3, Philadelphia 3, Ruth Marcus 3, Peter Hart 3, Paul Ryan 3,
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  MSNBC    Andrea Mitchell Reports    News/Business. Interviews with political  
   figures with host Andrea Mitchell. New.  

    November 4, 2012
    3:00 - 3:59pm EST  

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right now on "andrea mitchell reports" out in force, no holds barred for the final push. in new hampshire, i'm here today because i'm not ready to give up on the fight. i know i look a little older, i got a lot of fight left in me. >> paul ryan and i will limit government instead of limiting the dreams of our fellow americans. >> this is mitt romney's favorite time of the year -- favorite day, because he officially gets to turn back the clock. that's what he does. he does it officially.
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>> two more days! two more days! two more days! >> with the race deadlocked, it is a blitz of a battleground. president obama in new hampshire with his wing man, bill clinton. >> the polls say it's close and it could come down to what you decide. >> is it newfound confidence or desperation? governor romney and paul ryan go hunting for independents later in pennsylvania. and you came through. ♪ ♪ ♪ take my hand, we'll make it i swear ♪ ♪ living on a prayer >> we learn today that viewers donated nearly $23 million for
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sandy victims. ♪ under the boardwalk ♪ down by the sea yeah ♪ on a blanket with my baby ♪ is where i'll be good day, i'm andrea mitchell, live at nbc's democracy plaza here in new york where we're going to bring you nonstop coverage of decision 2012. with only two days to go before the election, we have the latest results from the final nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. object the east coast, eleion officials racing against the clock to get polling locations up and running despite the storm. while storm-ravaged communities are still waiting for power to come on. and debris to be cleared. 30 to 40,000 people here in new york city alone remain without power in their homes in sandy's wake. at a briefing this morning, new york city's mayor, michael bloomberg, warned that election officials are facing tough obstacles.
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this is a suspect that is not run by the state or by the city. and they have real problems and we've got to make sure that everybody can vote. it's not going to be easy, but we'll both work hard on that. and in battered new jersey, with freezing temperatures setting in, more than one million people still have no power. nbc's ron allen is in little ferry, new jersey, what's the situation where you are? >> we're at a polling place, andrea. a school, you can see the voting machines have arrived. the question is where are they going to be able to put them? there's a cleaning crew going through the building, trying to dry it out. they think it will be a polling place, but they're not sure. they do have power. there's talk of trying to consol state polling places, asking people to go to one big center in brooklyn new york, there's talk of erecting tents in a parking lot, bringing in big generators so people can vote there. one of the problems is at this point, so many people don't have power, communications, they
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don't have information about where they're going to vote. it's a fast-moving situation, in new jersey county election offices have been open all weekend. they've been encouraging people to vote and make it easy. in new jersey, you can request a ballot by fax or email. and vote outside the county you live in with a provisional ballot. they're trying to make it easy. >> it could make problems in tabulating ballots, because there will now be -- becomes president. united states it could affect who become the local county commissioner or the local city official in so many places, there are ballot questions, tax issues, bond issues. a lot of stress on the system. and again because things are moving so quickly. because power is being restored in some places and not in others, because floodwaters are receding in some places and not in others, it's right up until
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the time the polls are supposed to open on tuesday there could be a lot of questions about where and how anyone can vote. >> as well as those congressional races. house and senate seats as well. thank you so much, ron allen. and our latest and final nbc news/"wall street journal" poll before the election, the president is maintaining an eight-point lead among women voters, mitt romney has ann a seven-point lead among men. joining me now for a look at the final stretch of this close race, california senator barbara boxer. senator, thanks so much for joining us. the gender gap has been a big issue, the women's vote has been a big issue among voters throughout this campaign. let's talk about the gender gap. the president has sort of narrow lead among women. it's no longer the double-digit lead that he had. but is this enough for him to carry him, despite the disadvantage that he has with male, men voters, especially white men? >> first of all there are more
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women voters than men voters. so when he's leading women by eight and romney is leading men by seven, i think the math works in our favor. but here's the other interesting statistic -- among the undecides, the few that are left, most of them are women. and i think as women look at this, whether they're number one issue is jobs, and they look at the latest jobs reports, do you know that you probably do, that barack obama, under his leadership, we've created more private-sector jobs in the last couple of months than george w. bush in eight years? and this president was handed the worst recession since the great depression. and we're coming out of it. and so we can't go back to those days. which is what romney/ryan would do, take us back. would take us back on health care. where being a woman was a preexisting condition. she had to pay twice as much for the same health insurance as a man. they want to criminalize a woman's right to choose. even in cases of rape and
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incest. that's in the republican platform. it's unbelievable. so i think when the president says, this election is about moving forward or going backwards, i think that sum it is up. and women as a rule, we look forward. >> you have more women candidates running now in terms of senate seats. do you expect that when this is all over there will be more women senators, even despite the retirement from the senate in maine, of olympia snowe, a republican? >> i do think so. and i called this the year of the woman about a year ago. i think that is going to happen. >> sox of our women are within the margin of error, i'm nervous. everything is at stake, andrea, i've not seen an election like this in a long time. whether your issue is the economy and jobs, or health care or the environment, clean air, clean water are, we going to
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respond to too much carbon pollution in the air, which is causing global warming? all of these things are at stake, housing. name your issue. and you'll see a tremendous difference between the candidates. >> the republican, mitt romney and the republicans have been saying is that the economy is driving this and that women and other groups are driven more by economic interests, less so by concerns over reproductive freedom. what say you? >> it's true in some states, i don't think it matters, auntia. if you're looking at jobs as your number one issue and how about the issue of equal pay for equal work. when mitt romney doesn't even know if he would sign the lily ledbetter fair pay act. compared to barack obama, that was the first bill he signed. so whether your issue is jobs, which are finally coming back now, and we can't go back to those days of george w. bush and the same policies that romney is
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embracing, whether that's your issue or whether you think it's fair that a woman should be made a criminal if she exercises her right to choose -- on both issues, the president and the democrats are on your side. and so i really do have faith in the women. you know, i will tell you a quick story. my mother was born before women got the vote and when i was a little girl, she would take me to the polls. with her and she was so enamored of voting and she pulled that curtain around her, in those days they did that. and later in life, she said, you know a lot of the women have the men fill out their ballot. but when we get in that booth and we pull the curtain, we do what we think is right. and i think you're going to see women step up to the plate for barack obama and the democrats. >> barbara boxer, thank you so much, senator, thank you for being with us today. and up next, the state of the race, our pollsters are here with the final nbc news/"wall street journal" results, you're watching a special sunday
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edition of "andrea mitchell reports" live from democracy plaza on msnbc. ♪
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here in the final campaign sprint we have the candidates in a dead heat. according to the final nbc/"wall street journal" poll out today. which side has momentum? joining me are polling experts, peter hart, chairman of hart research associates and bill mcinturf, co-founder of public strategies. first to you peter and then to you, bill. take a look at the head-to-head, 48-47, what does it tell you, peter? >> it's a dead close race, you
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can't get closer than that, andrea. what essentially it comes down to is turn-out. and obviously as you said, momentum for the president, he's obviously hoping that sandy and the way in which he handled it will be a plus for him. it's a question of turn-out. he has to look at those groups that are up for grabs, those are groups that are favorable for him. >> and let's take a look at sandy, because, bill, that does seem to be a possible game-changer. what did we learn from these numbers and from the way people viewed the president with chris christie and perhaps how it may have frozen the campaign at a critical point for governor romney? >> i think it did help freeze the campaign for a few days. i think that's thawing out and we're getting back to normal. there are few things important about the survey, first, republicans are nine points more interested in this campaign than democrats, one of the largest margins i've ever seen in a presidential year. party idea, the difference between democrats and republicans is now within two. i think that could close
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further. and mitt romney is ahead with independents. these are all signs of a potential for larger republican turn-out that's what's measured in this poll as people actually go vote. >> and peter, what about the gender gap and the advantage that the president enjoys among women and the disadvantage he has, and the advantage that mitt romney has among men? >> well clearly, as you pointed out in the previous interview, what we have is the president ahead with women and trailing with men. and it's probably a narrower gender gap than we've had before. but at the same time that's another group, andrea that's very important and that's the up for grabs group. about 9% of the electorate. that group happens toor more democratic, happens to be more positive towards the president. those kinds much things i think help to make up some of the difference. i think what bill and i would both tell you is you can't get closer than what we see at this stage of the game and it's pretty hard to predict who is
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going to turn out at this exact moment. >> peter, you went out and talked to independents, indecided voters in key states. you circled back in recent days. what have you discovered from people you've talked to in colorado or wisconsin or virginia? >> it was fascinating. because essentially a lot of the women voters looked at the performance of the president over this week and saw a sense of confidence, a sense of leadership, a sense of being able to do the job. i thought that was extremely important. and it reflected obviously in the data we picked up on sand considy. we're looking at those independents, those have swung towards mitt romney. that's going to be an equally important segment. >> mitt romney's speeches have reached out to independents. he's been giving a very different client of closing
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speech than the speech he gave earlier in the campaign. do you think that can work for him? >> it's working. in our survey, multiple other national surveys, we're seeing the republican candidate, romney, with an advantage among republicans, these are people that barack obama carried by eight points last time. if it goes eight points for romney, it gets hard to win. the other thing we see, which is interesting, who is the effective leader who gets things done, on that quality, romney has an advantage on this survey. it reflects this kind of idea that people have, that in fact, mitt romney, because of his business background, could be effective in terms of trying to get things accomplished in washington. >> bill mcinturf and peter hart. the best in the business, the best poll and we're so happy and proud to have you and have you as colleagues, thank you very much. mitt romney is touching all bases today, from iowa to ohio, where the campaign is going head to head with the obama team's ground troops, county by county.
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shawn spicer, shawn, good to see you. i want to ask you about the travel plans. the fact that the romney/ryan team going to pennsylvania has raised a lot of eyebrows, the democrats say it's desperation, because they know they can't win ohio, have to find some other route to 270. republicans in pennsylvania and elsewhere say it's a real campaign. and that there's a real possibility there. tell us what you're seeing on the ground. >> i think we're going to carry ohio. i think we got real shot at pennsylvania. so if you use their metric, the governor and paul ryan have been in ohio extensively over the last couple of days, they'll continue to be there in the last 48 hours that proves that we believe we think we've got an excellent ground game. we're going to carry ohio. obviously we're putting our time and money into pennsylvania, because we think we have a real shot there and it continues to look promising. andrea, i think the election will come down to three issues, bill and peter just touched on
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them. it's issues, intensity and independents. when it comes to the intensity factor, bill and peter both pointed out, we have more folks on our side, fired up, ready to put mitt romney in the office, to hit the ground, get ready to vote. the intensity is with us. the independents are with us in countless surveys, breaking for mitt romney. on issues, you've got mitt romney talking about big issues that are a concern to people. whether it's leadership, turning the economy around. people believe on the issues they're going to vote on, mitt romney is the guy. on all three of those things, issues, intensity and independents, we're the campaign that's going forward right now with the advantage in all three of those areas. >> sean, let me show you something that haley haley barbd to say.
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mississippi governor. >> the return is what broke romney's momentum. any day that the news media is not talking about jobs or the economy, taxes or spending, deficits and debt, boem care and energy, is a good day for barack obama. >> now haley barbour, explained that when you're a governor, you have to be with the white house and the national government for the long haul. do you have a problem with the way chris christie behaved? did he go overboard in praising president obama. >> chris christie did his job, he's known as an effective leader. he needed the federal government to go in there and partner with him. cut through the bureaucracy and the red tape that allows him to get the help that he needs to as citizens. so you know, he did his job. that's why he's such an effective governor. back to what people are going to vote on whext they walk into that polling booth on tuesday, they're going to be looking for an effective leader, someone who
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can turn the economy around. on both of these issues, poll after poll, shows that mitt romney is the guy that american people believe can make those things happen. >> shawn spicer from the republican national committee, thank you very much. up next, does the obama campaign think that pennsylvania is in play? [ female announcer ] caroline penry began using olay total effects in 2001. since then, there's been one wedding, 2 kids, and 43 bottles of olay total effects. so in spite of 185 tantrums 378 pre-dawn starts and a lot of birthdays, caroline still looks amazing. you can challenge what's possible thanks to the trusted performance of olay. 60 years, millions of women,
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to volunteer to help those in need. when a twinge of back pain surprises him. morning starts in high spirits, but there's a growing pain in his lower back. as lines grow longer, his pain continues to linger. but after a long day of helping others, he gets some helpful advice. just two aleve have the strength to keep back pain away all day. today, jason chose aleve. just two pills for all day pain relief. try aleve d for strong, all day long sinus and headache relief. both presidential candidates have spent months fighting over nine battleground states, but as the race draws to a close, the romney campaign is trying to expand the battlefield to states that have bee blue in recent years, is this opportunity or desperation? democratic national committee executive director patrick gas par joins me now. we just talked to sean spicer
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who says pennsylvania is in play. what are you hearing from the keystone state? >> i'm happy to tell thaw david axelrod's mustache is very safe. he was on the set of "morning joe" a couple of days ago. he bet his mustache on pennsylvania and a company of other states. we feel great about our ground in minnesota and one of the people who is going to deliver the speech, bill clinton is going to make the case from where we've come and where we are today and the vision that the president has for the future. i know we're going to close strong there and every other battleground. >> he's got a final stop in philadelphia. if you guys aren't turning it out in philadelphia, you've got a real problem. that's the democratic stronghold for pennsylvania. plus in your senate race, the republican candidate comes from out west. he comes from coal country and could challenge and eat into bob casey's traditional strengths out west. why spend time in philadelphia if you're so confident of pennsylvania? >> we're not taking anything for
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granted. we feel so strong about our operations, particularly in states like ohio, iowa, north carolina, nevada with americans are actually casting ballots already and the president has a 2-1 advantage amongst those who have already voted. but as the romney campaign and the super pacs are on the air and we're showing that we have the ability to go deep and broad as well and we're not leaving a single vote on the table. we feel great about our ground game. i was watching the bill clinton/president obama rally last night and it had all the feel of classic bill clinton. the president got pumped up by that as well. bill clinton lost his voice, but that didn't slow him down or shorten his speech at all. we heard everything, including don't stop thinking about tomorrow. there was a lot of nostalgia going on. tell me about that relationship. because it's been fraught with difficulty and we all know what it was like four years ago. there was a lot of tension and it didn't get repaired that
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easily. >> yesterday it was great, nobody makes a closing argument better than bill clinton does. andrea, somebody who worked closely with the clintons four years ago, from the moment that the president secured the nomination, bill clinton was on board in a fulsome way to campaign for us in the full of 2008. he supported every single initiative this president has put forward in the last three and a half years. we don't have anyone who is a more accomplished ambassador for thundershower achievement. >> after the closing we have seen for bill clinton in this campaign, tireless, indefatiguable, if there were a decision and hillary clinton does want to go for it in 2016, how could barack obama, if he is re-elected, deny the clintons anything at this point? >> andrea, secretary clinton has been a remarkable, remarkable member of this cabinet and remarkable maps for the united states across the world. i hope that you're going to let us just get through november 6 before we start forecasting 2016. i want to say look, bill clinton
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has been amazing, he reminds everybody that barack obama has grown the private sector by 5.2 million in the last two years. and the only jobs that mitt romney has grown are for fact checkers. we feel great about all the participation we're getting an early vote. we know that in order for mitt romney to win, he would have to get 60% of the remaining votes on the table in though states, it's not going to happen, we're going to close strong and win this election. >> you're a native new yorker and you've suffered some real losses here. my condolences. >> thank you. the city has got an amazing fighting spirit, and i know they're going to come back strong. >> thank you. up next, our power-packed panel, michael beschloss, susan page.
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both campaigns say they've got the momentum. joining me to take us behind the numbers and spin, nbc news presidential historian, michael beschloss, ruth markus, and "washington journal"'s major garrett. >> michael, we've talked in the past about october surprises and here you have a super storm, hurricane sandy, transforming at least the last five days of this campaign. what is the impact of that? >> well, i think it allows a voters to go into the polls with a look at barack obama that was pretty bipartisan and pretty presidential. that might not have been the case, had sandy not come along. when we look at the election from 20 or 30 years from now we will remember sandy, but we'll remember more the overall contours the fact that this is a
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country extremely divided on very basic issues. >> a country extremely divided, it doesn't get closer than susan page, your final gallup swing state poll. let's look at your numbers. >> this is our 11th in a series of polls, of 12 swing states we've done over the past year. in our final poll, 48-48 among likely voters. that shows some resurgence by president obama in the poll we did in early october. weighs down four among likely voters. he's regained the support of women voters, some of whom he lost in that first presidential debate. we see him making up the lost ground from the debates in the final weeks of campaigning. but man, 48-48 among likely voters who could call a contest like this one? >> when you talk about the gender gap, he has in your poll in the swing states at least, president obama has a huge, 26-point gender gap with women. but take a look at what men are saying about mitt romney. >> mitt romney has men -- according to your polling,
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fiercely pro romney. >> we have a big gender divide as you said, 26%. but look at the racial divide. when you put race and gender together, white men are going for mitt romney by 27 percentage points in this poll. it shows the divide we've had. and the way that the parties are putting together coalitions that are so extremely different from each other and divide the electorate almost evenly. >> ruth marcus, when we talk about such a polarized electorate, and are seeing the results in congressional races what will whoever gets elected president, be able to accomplish? >> i was afraid that was going to be the end of that question, andrea. in my editorial, head editorial writers are always saying, let's reason together and work together and overcome partisan gridlock. there's going to be a good reason to overcome partisan gridlock, that is called the fiscal live. it's looming.
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it's coming, expiring tax cuts about to go into effect. if there was ever a time that the new president could work together or the same president could work together, with a new congress or the lame duck congress, this should be it. i'm kind of hopeful. but that's because i'm editorial writer. >> major gast, you've spent a lot of time with these candidates, we've seen a different tone and different words from mitt romney in the last number of days, it is all about reaching out to independents. >> look, let me pick up on ruth's point. the fiscal cliff is real. decisions have to be made if you look at contours of mitt romney, he's told republicans, i'm going to meet with you, but right alo alongside with you, i'm going to meet with democrats and i intend to strike deals with democrats and republicans. he's been advertising that aggressively and if he wins, narrowly that's going to be part and parcel of his broader
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political mandate. to work across party lines and solve these issues and solve these problems. if president obama is re-elected, congressional republicans will have to reconcile themselves to that fact. they won in 2010 and had a strategy at least in part to deny the president re-election. if he wins re-election, they're going to have to deal with them as the leader of this country, commander-in-chief, legislator in chief for the next four years. so i think there is reason for home, on the senate elections we're going to see something we haven't seen in quite some time. split-ticket voting or people not voting at all. i think in montana you're going to have romney-tester votes, or romney-claire mccaskill votes. >> i think it will reflect an orientation among voters that they want washington to function more harmoniously than it has in the last couple of years. >> michael beschloss, do you see any historical trends here, in that whoever gets elected is
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going to have to work with the opposite party? is going to have to, i'm less optimistic than major is. if you look at the last 12 years, 2001, we suffered the worst attack on our territory, mainland, since 1812 and the financial crisis of 2008. i would have said if there were moments that people would have knock it off and drop the part sanship, that would have been then and they didn't do it for very long. i think the other thing to remember is that congress is more divided, more partisan than i think it has been for most of american history. i hope that that immediately evaporates, in a month or two, i'm not sure it will. >> we see trends that tea party activists are going to be strengthened. they're not going to be in contested districts, you're going to have a much more partisan congress and blue dog democrats defeated or retiring. you'll have fewer people in the middle. let's talk about bill clinton and barack obama.
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this new duo. let's take a look at them. praising each other on the campaign trail. >> let me just say, president clinton has been traveling all across the country for this campaign. he has been breaking it down so well that people tell me i should ask him to be secretary of explaining stuff. >> the only clinton working harder than him is -- our secretary of state, hillary clinton. >> he's been a good commander-in-chief, a good decider in chief. a proven cooperator, because he got better plans for the future, because you and your children and our country will be better off, i strongly recommend that we re-elect the next president of the united states -- the current current president. united states, our president, barack obama. >> ruth marcus, you and i were
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on the road throughout 1992. and he still has that spirit, campaigning for of all people, barack obama. >> and you know, i've been having flashbacks to that last day of the '92 campaign where he literally campaigned around the clock before ending up in little rock on election day. and he is so happy doing that. you know, it could be the secretary of explaining stuff. and you might want to outsource some campaigning to him. it's great to watch president obama having these two end of campaign bromances, both somewhat unlikely, one with governor christie and the other with president clinton. >> both extremely unlikely. that's why we love politics. it's all so unpredictable. susan page, any surprises that you are looking at, any particular race or results, state-by-state results. >> just to talk about the senate for a minute. i've been struck by the number
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of women candidates, some in both parties, most democrats, in competitive races, unexpectedly i think we're going to see the number of women in the senate increase, eight challenger who are in women are in competitive races. including in unlikely states like north dakota and missouri. places we didn't expect the women democrats to do as well as we're doing. >> major garrett, any surprises you're looking for? >> i want to talk about the clinton/obama relationship. i think fundamentally bill clinton knows if there's any negative impression left about his efforts for barack obama, if president obama doesn't win re-election, then hill hoyle is if she wants to run in 2016, handicapped. he doesn't want that to happen. he's going force for the president. not only to show the country the schism has been solved, but also to lay the groundwork should hillary clinton want to seek the nomination in 2016, i think it works at both levels. >> and michael beschloss, what
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are you looking for? >> hope for something i don't think i'll see. you were talking about earlier about peter hart and bill mcinturf, the fact that this country is so divided between these two candidates. not necessarily only by ideas, but also by gender, economic groups, ethnicity in some cases and i think that is something that the founders would have been horrified by. they wanted us to have big conflicts, tough elections, but they wanted them to be fought on ideas, and not divided by groups of that kind. >> and ruth any final thoughts, surprises coming up? >> it's not going to be a surprise, i don't think. but i believe that the democrats are going to retain control of the senate and it's really going to be the second election in a row in which you would have bet at the start of the cycle. that the numbers were such they couldn't possibly hold on. and it's been a self-inflicted wound largely, by the candidates. >> thanks so much to all of you,
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mitt romney and his message clearly was get out and vote. and this is something we've been hearing over and over again in the closing days, $1.6 million people have voted here in cleveland. that would tend to favor the democrats, we just got the numbers from the secretary of state yesterday. but they're going to go up. because we've been seeing tremendous lines all across the state. in early voting, a lot of pictures on twitter. that's going to be interesting to follow. why would mitt romney spend these precious final hours in cleveland, a place where barack obama won by 69% and the reason is margins. they believe they can make up important ground here among working-class whites. in fact there's a statistic they keep repeating, it's this -- that barack obama's margin of victory across ohio was smaller than it was in cleveland. so cleveland and cuyahoga county were the difference and they believe the romney campaign, if they can cut into that.
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that that can be the difference for them in ohio i should mention, two recent polls are ours, which showed that barack obama up by six points. new "columbus dispatch" poll out says two. it's still a close race, but looking at the polls, it would still favor barack obama. >> chris jansing, thanks so much for the latest from ohio. up next, the other races that will keep us up late on election night. this is andrea mitchell reports live from democracy plaza on msnbc. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase.
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whoever gets elected president will have to deal with a lot more partisan congress based on primary results. nobody knows this stuff better than you do. jennifer, big theme, what you're looking for in this campaign, from what we've seen so far? >> obviously the majority of the
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senate is at stake. republicans want the four seats they need to get that majority, but they have been hampered. in 2010, candidates were elected by tea party activists who have proven to be especially weak. we're seeing it in missouri and indiana. these are two states republicans should win. >> when you take a look at the house members and those who have won in the primaries already, what kind of a house of representatives are we going to see? >> we're not headed for much turnover in the house. we'll probably see a democratic gain of zero to five seats. republicans could pick up a handful. but we are headed for the most polarized house of representatives in memory. on the democratic side, blue dogs were cut in half in 2010 and will be cut in half again in
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2012. >> the blue dog democrats, you'll only have a hand full? >> right. and democrats are going to be majority women, and on the run side, the tea party class of 2010, more than 80% of them will be re-elected in 2012. and their influence will rise as a result of their being 62 incumbentless seats on the ballot in november, which is a record since 1992 and a lot of conservative republicans are winning these seats. >> when we look at the senate, aside from what you mentioned in indiana and missouri, who are some of the other candidates possibly in trouble? >> we are looking at nine very tight races. five seats held by democrats,
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four by republicans. so i think the one seat that neither party will take a bet on is montana. >> jon tester, the incumbent democrat. >> we think we may not know the answer until thursday. so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer.
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i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida particularly, you have some really controversial candidates. one is very outspoken tea party republican allen west and the other is allen grayson, running to return to the house. >> any state that could elect either one is an accepting and forgiving electorate or they can't make up their minds. allen west has actually put up his opponent's mug shot from when he was 19 years old and that's unprecedented. most tea party representatives, no matter how controversial they are, will be re-elected. >> what about harry reid in nevada?
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we've seen that he has a machine in nevada and can deliver. >> he has spent a decade putting together a real democratic machine there. it saved him in 2010 and allowed him to win re-election. and i think that it looks like the state leans towards president obama. but the senate race, the republican has a bit of an advantage there. the problem is that the democratic candidate is not a perfect candidate. she's under investigation by the house ethics committee and that's gotten in her way of getting better known and supported in areas of the state she does not represent, because these tend to be more swing areas of the state. >> one of the questions that is going to come up quickly on leadership issues. nancy pelosi, the democratic leader, has virtually no chance they're going to pick up 25 seats.
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that means that the democrats are not going to regain control. what is the likely scenario, is she going to stay and be the democratic leader? >> most people thought in 2010 after democrats lost 63 seats and lost control of the house she might step aside. she actually stayed on. i don't hear from democrats betting she's going to quietly step aside, even if democrats don't gain much traction and pick up half of the seats they need to take back the house and give her back the gavel. >> we have to leave it there. thanks jennifer and david. that does it for us for this special edition and we'll be back tomorrow live from here at our regular time with gloria, rachel, mark, chris, a cast of
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